September 11, 2025
“Take a simple idea, and take it seriously.” – Charlie Munger
We believe this quote by Charlie Munger captures Bristol Gate’s business mission perfectly. At the core of our philosophy is the belief that the value of an asset is inherently tied to the income it generates. In our case, that income comes from the dividends paid by the stocks we own.
It’s well established that owning dividend-paying stocks generally offers a significant advantage over non-dividend-paying stocks over the long-term. Before launching our strategy, we asked: Within the universe of dividend payers, which companies are the best performers?
By asking this simple question, we discovered that companies in the highest dividend growth cohort—regardless of their current dividend yield — had historically delivered the most attractive risk-adjusted returns over time.
The figure below highlights the strength of high dividend growers from a capital appreciation perspective. As you can see, the correlation between a stock’s income and its value is clear and gets stronger over time. We believe this differentiated focus is an excellent complement to traditional dividend strategies that tend to own higher-yielding, but slower-growing, companies.
The chart above illustrates the total return for dividend paying securities in the S&P 500 based on their dividend growth rate over the relevant periods. The period referenced is from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 2024, and observations are made on a monthly basis. Source: Bristol Gate Capital Partners, FactSet. There is a risk of loss inherent in any investment; past performance is not indicative of future results – please see Important Disclosures.
With this evidence in hand, we developed a disciplined and systematic process to identify and hold the highest dividend growth companies. Since our inception, we have used data analytics to predict dividend growth. In 2017, we adopted a machine learning model designed specifically to forecast future dividend growth for each company in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Further, the application and insights provided through data science and artificial intelligence is leading to improvements in our understanding of the opportunity this unique approach provides.
Our predictive approach allows us to focus on what matters most to our strategy — future growth in cash flow to shareholders — while avoiding common behavioral biases that can cloud investment decisions. It also allows us to build a concentrated portfolio of companies that not only grow their dividends consistently, but do so from a position of business strength and quality.
Source: Bristol Gate Capital Partners, FactSet. See Important Disclosures for full performance history. Data for current holdings is shown as of Dec. 31, 2024. For these purposes, Holding Period reflects the adjusted close of the initial buy and final sell dates of these positions and does not reflect the actual return contribution to the portfolio. There is a risk of loss inherent in any investment; past performance is not indicative of future results – please see Important Disclosures.
The above chart provides a compelling proof of concept for the relationship between income growth (measured by dividend per share growth) and capital appreciation (measured by total return), showing the stocks that Bristol Gate has held for over 5 years. By systematically investing in companies with strong forward-looking dividend growth, we aim to capture not just rising income, but the capital appreciation that tends to follow. We’re not chasing yield. We’re not forecasting macro trends. We’re focused on what we believe is a powerful and repeatable investment edge: high, sustainable dividend growth backed by data and discipline.
Our simple idea: invest in the highest dividend growers with the strongest business quality andtake this idea seriously by using a machine learning algorithm to predict forward dividend growth, giving us an unbiased list of companies from which we create a concentrated portfolio.
At Bristol Gate, taking this simple idea seriously has meant building a differentiated process — one that combines human insight and data science— all in the service of a straightforward goal: deliver attractive returns to our investors driven by a growing stream of income.
Important disclosures
Performance Disclosure (As of August 31, 2025):
There is a risk of loss inherent in any investment; past performance is not indicative of future results. Prospective and existing investors in Bristol Gate’s pooled funds or ETF funds should refer to the fund’s offering documents which outline the risk factors associated with a decision to invest. Separately managed account clients should refer to disclosure documents provided which outline risks of investing. Pursuant to SEC regulations, a description of risks associated with Bristol Gate’s strategies is also contained in Bristol Gate’s Form ADV Part 2A located at www.bristolgate.com/regulatory-documents.
The information contained herein is obtained from multiple sources that are believed to be reliable. However, such information may not have been verified, and may be different from the information included in documents and materials created by a sponsor firm in whose investment program a client participates. Some sponsor firms may require that these Bristol Gate materials are preceded or accompanied by investment profiles or other documents or materials prepared by such sponsor firms, which will be provided upon a client’s request. There may be discrepancies between Bristol Gate’s performance returns and the returns included in a sponsor firm’s profile document (for example, but not limited to, differences in account size/type, portfolio management strategies, the number of securities held, average account size, inclusion of institutional or mutual fund accounts, etc.) For additional information, documents and/or materials, please speak to your Financial Advisor.
US Equity Strategy returns in this report refer to the Bristol Gate US Equity Strategy Composite (the “Composite”). The Composite consists of equities of publicly traded, dividend paying US companies. The Composite is valued in US Dollars and for comparison purposes is measured against the S&P 500 Total Return Index. The composite’s Investment Advisor, Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc., defines itself as a portfolio manager, exempt market dealer and investment fund manager (as per its registration in Ontario, its principal regulator in Canada) and is also a Registered Investment Adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). The Investment Advisor’s objective is to select companies with positive dividend growth, and which collectively will generate over the long term a growing income and capital appreciation for investors. The inception date of the Composite is May 15, 2009. The US Dollar is the currency used to measure performance, which is presented on a gross and net basis and includes the reinvestment of investment income. The composite’s gross return is gross of withholding tax prior to January 1, 2017 and is net of withholding tax thereafter. Net returns are calculated by reducing the gross returns by the maximum management fee charged by Bristol Gate of 1%, applied monthly. Actual investment advisory fees incurred by clients may vary. There is the opportunity for the use of leverage up to 30% of the net asset value of the underlying investments using a margin account at the prime broker. Thus far no material leverage has been utilized. An investor’s actual returns may be reduced by management fees, performance fees, and other operating expenses that may be incurred because of the management of the composite. A performance fee may also be charged on some accounts and funds managed by the firm. Bristol Gate claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. To obtain a GIPS Composite Report, please email us at info@bristolgate.com.
The S&P 500® Total Return Index measures the performance of the broad US equity market, including dividend re-investment, in US dollars. This index is provided for information only and comparisons to the index has limitations. The benchmark is an appropriate standard against which the performance of the strategy can be measured over longer time periods as it represents the primary investment universe from which Bristol Gate selects securities. However, Bristol Gate’s portfolio construction process differs materially from that of the benchmark and the securities selected for inclusion in the strategy are not influenced by the composition of the benchmark. For example, the strategy is a concentrated portfolio of approximately equally weighted dividend-paying equity securities, rebalanced quarterly whereas the benchmark is a broad stock index (including both dividend and non-dividend paying equities) that is market capitalization weighted. As such, strategy performance deviations relative to the benchmark may be significant, particularly over shorter time periods. The strategy has concentrated investments in a limited number of companies; as a result, a change in one security’s value may have a more significant effect on the strategy’s value.
In addition to strategy’s benchmark described above, the following additional index data may be presented for information purposes only and comparisons to this index data has limitations:
S&P 500 ® Total Return Dividend Aristocrats Index measures the performance of a subset of S&P 500® Index companies that have increased their dividends every year for the last 25 consecutive years. This Index focuses on historical dividend growth, whereas Bristol Gate’s US Equity strategy’s securities are selected based on future dividend growth.
This piece is presented for illustrative and discussion purposes only. It should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities and it does not consider unique objectives, constraints, or financial needs of the individual. Under no circumstances does this piece suggest that you should time the market in any way or make investment decisions based on the content. Investors are advised that their investments are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated. References to specific securities are presented to illustrate the application of our investment philosophy only, do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for the portfolio, and it should not be assumed that investments in the securities identified were or will be profitable and should not be considered recommendations by Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. A full list of security holdings is available upon request. For more information contact Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. directly. The information contained in this piece is the opinion of Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. and/or its employees as of the date of the piece and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in this piece at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. We strongly recommend you consult with a financial advisor prior to making any investment decisions. Please refer to the Legal section of Bristol Gate’s website for additional information at bristolgate.com.
A Note About Forward-Looking Statements
This report may contain forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements about the Bristol Gate strategies, risks, expected performance and condition. Forward-looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, that depend upon or refer to future events and conditions or include words such as “may”, “could”, “would”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “estimate” and similar forward-looking expressions or negative versions thereof.
These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions about the investment strategies, capital markets and economic factors, which could cause actual financial performance and expectations to differ materially from the anticipated performance or other expectations expressed. Economic factors include, but are not limited to, general economic, political and market factors in North America and internationally, interest and foreign exchange rates, global equity and capital markets, business competition, technological change, changes in government regulations, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings, and catastrophic events. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and consider the above-mentioned factors and other factors carefully before making any investment decisions. All opinions contained in forward-looking statements are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results could differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. has no specific intention of updating any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by securities legislation.
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